Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-08 0.176349 0.210378 0.250793 0.302782 0.368539 0.449822 5.592805e-01
2025-06-15 0.131650 0.171006 0.223015 0.298271 0.406932 0.562300 8.092293e-01
2025-06-22 0.102362 0.142670 0.200966 0.294500 0.446990 0.697820 1.169975e+00
2025-06-29 0.078330 0.115670 0.173895 0.276031 0.461710 0.810084 1.586237e+00
2025-07-06 0.054530 0.083681 0.131502 0.220732 0.396071 0.758784 1.680655e+00
2025-07-13 0.045038 0.072409 0.120191 0.216542 0.425927 0.919794 2.433022e+00
2025-07-20 0.038888 0.065434 0.114724 0.222295 0.482242 1.190889 3.899582e+00
2025-07-27 0.034355 0.060375 0.111660 0.232740 0.559149 1.600014 6.758402e+00
2025-08-03 0.030253 0.055259 0.107271 0.239323 0.634622 2.111063 1.186103e+01
2025-08-10 0.026076 0.049140 0.099268 0.234518 0.677736 2.588585 1.939609e+01
2025-08-17 0.022282 0.043081 0.089963 0.223123 0.695162 3.013569 3.015930e+01
2025-08-24 0.019864 0.039513 0.085651 0.224617 0.764887 3.880553 5.793762e+01
2025-08-31 0.017693 0.036262 0.081791 0.227915 0.857749 5.249667 1.358649e+02
2025-09-07 0.015961 0.033687 0.079064 0.234408 0.980768 7.423215 4.069967e+02
2025-09-14 0.014431 0.031300 0.076254 0.239954 1.115763 10.601484 1.619272e+03
2025-09-21 0.012731 0.028169 0.070559 0.232278 1.173047 13.480064 6.419584e+03
2025-09-28 0.010395 0.023054 0.057933 0.191727 0.977839 11.503411 6.468099e+03
2025-10-05 0.009452 0.021392 0.055317 0.191942 1.070588 15.715162 6.767767e+04
2025-10-12 0.008812 0.020414 0.054565 0.200205 1.245428 24.477946 1.229891e+08
2025-10-19 0.008310 0.019717 0.054548 0.212357 1.489802 41.722033 NaN
2025-10-26 0.007783 0.018857 0.053780 0.220843 1.733875 70.165080 NaN
2025-11-02 0.007144 0.017567 0.051208 0.218635 1.868476 102.613842 NaN
2025-11-09 0.006487 0.016124 0.047760 0.209879 1.912728 134.894146 NaN